GW11 Notes

Some updates and a look at GW11 and beyond.

Hello 👋

Been a while since I last sent out an email - going to use this post as a general update on all sorts of things. Contents:

• General Updates / Housekeeping

• Team Data

• Fantasy Data

---

Updates / Housekeeping

Fantasy ranking: a small (not so humble) brag that I am pleased to be up to 12th in the FPL Research all time Manager Ratings. I am in 1st place if you take only the years I have played. My luck will run out eventually.

Two updates for members:

• Substack Chat : since I am nuked on Twitter with no Premium or regular posting, I am trying to use Substack Chat with members more. Feel free to jump in there if you want to connect!

• 24/25 Team Style Profiles : I have started work to update these now we have 10 weeks of data. I hope to have them available soon!

Model Accuracy: the team model has been doing quite well this season. I have been tracking its performance against the markets and it has been slightly ahead all season. I keep this live and updated graphic on the FAQ page.

Team Data

Here is a look at the predictions for the weekend:

Here is a look at the predicted goals for the upcoming horizon:

You can view the interactive version here. I think it is a particularly interesting horizon at the moment. Bournemouth coming up pretty well as a mixture of both improved team strength and relatively nice schedule. Conversely, Wolves up in 13th is very high for them but is a testament to how weak they are in the model given this is a very easy run.

With ten weeks of data accumulated I feel now is a good time to start digging into the changes in team strength data. Here is a look at the changes in overall rating so far this season:

If you want to explore the interactive version with breakdowns of attack and defence then you can do that here.

Fantasy Data

WC3 and the outcomes from the model have been quite kind to me and I have had quite a lucky season so far and am sitting around OR 5000. Here is a look at the most important players for the upcoming horizon:

Notes:

• An fun captaincy week. All of Son, Salah and Fernandes are in contention depending on your own beliefs and preferences for risk. A reminder that decisions are not ‘absolute’. Most weeks the choice between the 5-star or 4-star captaincy option is similar to choosing between a 55% / 45% option. You would like to choose the 55% option but remember it is closer to a coin-flip than it is an ‘absolute’ right/wrong decision. I think if you are confident Son is going to get 80+ then he is the best captain choice this week. Fernandes is the option to maximise risk. I am going to captain Salah.

• The model’s preference for Saka is on display once again and I consider a priority to get a route back to him in the next 2 weeks.

• Evanilson / Semenyo are both interesting prospects (on the second page of table). You have to do a lot of investigation yourself regarding minutes and pen-share with Evanilson. I expect him to be heavily involved whilst on the pitch but would think Kluivert more likely to take a pen if they are both on the pitch.

For further context, here is a summary look at the predicted goal involvement for the next 6 weeks:

If you want to see another podcast soon then feel free to submit questions and I might do a Q+A style one.

Thanks and have a great weekend! ✌️