GW3 Prediction Notes

Thoughts from the wildcard.

Hi all 👋

Quick roundup of some data/predictions and some fantasy notes at the end (I am on wildcard!).

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Team Ratings changes after two weeks:

Here is how the model is adjusting its beliefs after 2 weeks:

A lot of comments about the Newcastle down-adjustment perhaps being unfair given the red card: I spoke about this specifically in the recent member’s podcast (link) but the reality is they have been underperforming even if we allow for that.

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Match Prediction Tracking:

I have been tracking my predictions versus markets and actual goals and xG. 2 weeks is meaningless but here are some observations:

1. Games are lower scoring than expected (I think this nuance is the main reason I have been slightly more accurate than the markets so far)… again, all noise so far but if you think there is something in this then consider how that might affect predictions (e.g. more clean sheets?); and

2. Markets seem to believe in a larger disparity of league quality than I do. Compared to other proprietary models I was aware of my model having a large gap between the top 3 and 4th but markets seem to believe the gap extends throughout the whole table (e.g. the top 3 are stronger and bottom 3 are weaker than I believe).

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GW3 Match Predictions:

If you are interested in looking at goals, clean sheets, and Win % for MD3-7 then you can view them in live-tables here.

Player Prediction Data and Fantasy WC Notes:

Here is a look at the summary view of goal involvement for the next 6 weeks:

You can view all 100 players in the members area here. This translates into an updated fast fantasy model looking like this:

Wildcard

I am currently on wildcard and here are my current thoughts: