24/25 PL First Look

Preview and plans for 24/25 season.

With Euro 2024 now finished, here is a short post giving a preview of what’s to come for 24/25.

Contents:

• Euro Content Review

• Premier League Preview

• MD 1-6 Win % Fixture Difficulty

• Premier League Simulated Table

• MD 1-6 Team Predicted Goals (members only)

• MD 1-6 Team Predicted Clean Sheets (members only)

Thank Eu(ro)

Firstly, a huge thank you to everyone who used the site during Euro 2024. The website smashed all its records and became a ‘Substack Bestseller’.

I consider the tournament a success, even if there was some free-trial/chargeback subscriber abuse (I forgive you and still love you even if you did this). International tournaments are always hard to predict and this Euros certainly had less goals than everyone predicted. My model had mean average errors (MAE) of 0.8 for Goals and 0.6 for xG - which I am satisfied with. I am even more happy with the handful of people who have reached out to me and said the model content helped them win totals of £1,000+ in paid fantasy games.

Premier League Preview

Much of the same content will carry over into the Premier League 24/25 season - with the dedicated page hosted here. The page is currently updating for the 24/25 season while I finalise the model updates but Subscribers have early access to see my data on this page as I work on it. More free content will be added as we get closer to the season. Some Team/Player preview articles to come as well - feel free to reach out to me if you are interested in collaborating!

For those only really interested in fantasy, you might be interested in the Fantasy model I will share closer to season start. It is a simplified player ratings model that I have leaned on heavily for the past 5 years and is essentially my solution to playing fantasy as a person with no time.

That is all from me at the moment! ✌️

Thanks again and check out below some screenshots from an initial first run of the model (predicted win% FDR, predicted table, MD 1-6 goals + clean sheets):

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