Fast Fantasy Model

Fantasy for busy people.

The model on this page has two purposes:

(1) it is my solution to playing fantasy as a person with very little time. This concept has formed the core of my play since I started playing fantasy (it seems to work well as no one else who started in 2019 has a better average rank than I do).

(2) I realised it might function nicely as a ‘beginner guide’ to using models for fantasy, so I made it public this season along with a guide below.

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How to use the Fast Fantasy Model:

1. Make transfers that increase your team’s ‘Future Importance’.

2. Captain your player with the most stars that week.

That’s it.

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If you want more information then see the guide below and consider signing up to access much of the data powering this model.

Guide and FAQs:

If you are using the model to play fantasy with minimal time, you likely don’t need to ask questions. Just follow steps 1+2 from the table, and you’ll be fine.

If you are interested in using the model to learn more about analytical methods in fantasy, then please continue reading the guide below.

What is Future Importance?

A number measuring how important the player is to future fantasy success. This number is primarily a representation of future fantasy points made using the prediction data on this site.

Creating this kind of number helps us make smart choices when outcomes are uncertain (football!) by calculating an average value for all possible likelihoods.

What do I do with these numbers?

The game is to maximise your team’s Future Importance number.

The idea of a ‘Future Importance’ number is to get you thinking about finding a ‘plan’ / path’’ /’ line’ for the future that maximises your team’s total Future Importance.

The Future Importance number does a lot of this work for you and simplifies the process. The next and better step is to use a more detailed model so that you can make more ‘granular’ decisions based on the predicted points each gameweek. This gives you the ‘problem’ to ‘solve’ on your own: how do I move players in and out of my team to maximise the total number of points? Optimisation!

Where can I find a more detailed model?

Check out FPL Review.

What Fantasy games is this meant for?

FPL and Fanteam style games.

Does the Future Importance consider price?

No, you'll need to calculate value based on current pricing.

What to do when two players have same/similar rating?

Any tiny differences in Future Importance (or any form of predicted points) should be dealt with by going with your preference.

Please keep in mind that decisions are not ‘absolute’. For example, most weeks the choice between the 5-star or 4-star captaincy option is similar to choosing between a 55% / 45% option. You would like to choose the 55% option but remember it is closer to a coin-flip than it is an ‘absolute’ right/wrong decision.

Generally, I consider anything with a difference of ~5 or less Future Importance to be a preference decision. You may also wish to consider (1) price difference; and (2) positional factors (e.g. there might be many midfield options and fewer forward options).

When should I roll a transfer?

My opinion is that you should be trying to roll a transfer most weeks. Generally, if your moves cannot increase your team’s overall Future Importance by ~10 then try to roll.

What about expected minutes?

The model numbers have long-term assumptions on player minutes baselines. However, they will not always be adjusted to reflect match-specific events (e.g. actual lineups, suspensions, or other absences etc.). You should always adjust according to your own beliefs.

Are player scores ranked by position?

No. In fantasy games, positions score points differently: e.g. midfielder goals are worth more than forwards, defenders and goalkeepers get clean sheet points, etc. The key to success is focusing on total points, not just positions.

This attitude will also allow you to correctly adjust to the fantasy ‘meta’ and the football landscape. For example, if the average number of goals per game in the Premier League is high then you might consider defenders to be less useful fantasy assets due to reduced points from clean sheets.

XYZ player is missing from the table.

The most likely reason for this is that their Future Importance is too low (table player pool is reduced to a list of viable players). If you think someone is missing in error then please do reach out to me.

How many matches in the future are considered?

Generally, the model incorporates future 5-7 future games, applying some ‘decay’.

What is decay?

Decay is valuing the near future more than the long-term future. We want to do this because the further into the future we plan the more uncertainty we have (e.g. injuries, suspensions, tactical changes, etc.).

I feel the ratings have changed a lot this week and my importance rating is lower than I expected.

This is entirely normal and happens in models. Do not worry! If you have a team based on previous numbers it is essentially just as good as it was previously. The reality is that small changes in the football landscape can have big butterfly effects on the Future Importance ratings. Optimal teams/decisions will change day-by-day, and that is okay!

I feel like I don’t have everything I need to make a decision!

Answer for busy people: you do!

Answer for curious people: you don’t! The reality is that models are the (primary) tool to help you make your decisions, but they still need to be used in context. Pay attention to your strategy. Pay attention to other sources. Pay attention to expected minutes. Pay attention to the news.

Have a question I didn’t answer? Message me and I will try add it:

Member Prediction Data

Everything below this line is weekly prediction data to help add extra context to your decisions using this model (e.g. player goals/assists).