Fast Fantasy Draft

How I would start the season.

I recently released my free Fast Fantasy Model. This is my one preseason fantasy post, designed to share my initial thoughts and picks based on the model's numbers.

This is not a team reveal (I haven’t signed up for FPL and likely won’t play this season), but rather a look at how I’d approach the season. A few notes:

• For each position, I'll give a ‘1st choice’ (the top player based on the numbers) and a ‘preference choice’ (a nearly equal alternative).

• I will give some xPoints numbers from under the hood at the time of writing but you should always check back in with the live Fast Fantasy table.

• The choices are ‘strategy neutral’ (e.g. there is no locked in WC).

• There’s little to separate Salah / Haaland paths overall, so this is more of a preference choice. I’ll write this assuming Salah is selected and offer example drafts for both options at the end.

• You will note that generally the selections lean towards good ‘decision-hygiene’ and ‘safety’. The way I make decisions with my models generally does lean towards multiple options, all of which you could choose with a ‘clean conscience’. As a result, you won’t see riskier picks like Minteh or Bobb - feel free to include them based on your own judgment.

Goalkeeper

• 1st Choices: Flekken / Onana

• Preference Choices: Henderson / Vicario

Goalkeeper is a funny position that leans on preference decisions more than most. The predicted numbers rarely show one standout option - most are closely grouped. They are all close together in reality. It is also heavily a preference decision because of budget allocation (e.g. given they are all so close together there is a preference to go as cheap as possible on GKs and put the money elsewhere).

My numbers indicate that Flekken / Henderson are the best cheaper options (both around 18 xPoints over the first 6). Onana / Vicario also show value at higher prices (both around 19 xPoints over the first 6 - value also depending on your fantasy game pricing).

Keeping it simple:

1. Decide if you want a cheaper or pricier GK.

2. Decide if you want more than one playing GK.

3. Pick your preference - don’t procrastinate over this position.

Defenders

• 1st Choices: Alexander-Arnold, Gabriel, Porro, Konsa, Dunk

• Preference Choices: Gvardiol, VVD, Quansah, Hall

Alexander-Arnold’s leads all defenders (26 xPoints over the first 6) but this obviously comes at a price. My model generally suggests 2-3 expensive defenders are optimal, with 4.5m defenders rotating in as needed.

With 4.5 choices, it is a good example of making sure you supplement the models with appropriate contextual information. Generally, you want cheap defenders to be available across a long horizon because their function is to be occasional rotation and back-up if necessary. This means that although players such as Guehi / Quansah / Hall will come up extremely high, you need to make sure you are doing a sense check as to their long-term availability and likely expected minutes. Security of Konsa / Dunk / Van Hecke / Robinson all quite valuable here imo.

Gabriel comes up extremely well as always (23 xPoints over the first 6), but again, another one to supplement with external factors (e.g. how does Calafiori affect him). Van Dijk is an underrated preference option here (identical xPoints over first 6) along with Gvardiol (21 xPoints).

Porro consistently appears in my solutions as the top defender below the premium tier.

Midfielders