MD38 Stat Pack
All the numbers for the final matchweek.
I recommended clicking ‘view in browser’ at the top to read the full post as some email providers will cut it short.
Here is a little ‘stat pack’ for the season finale. Thanks for following along this season. I will probably continue next season. I have ideas for upgrades but I am keen to hear any requests/ideas - just reply to this email! Euro 2024 content will be coming in the meantime!
Contents:
Team Section: Ratings and Matchweek Predictions + notes
Fantasy Section: player predictions + notes
Housekeeping:
Substack says there are a lot of subscribers who have only read emails and never actually browsed the website. I encourage browsing around the website, there is a lot to explore:
Notes:
Crystal Palace - Aston Villa is a strange fixture from a model perspective. I have been down on Villa compared to other places all season. Conversely, I am not as high on Crystal Palace as everyone else because the sample size with Glasner is small and the model needs time to update its beliefs. Overall, this might mean that the numbers are about right - but I think there is a lot of uncertainty in that fixture.
Liverpool - Wolves is the second most one-sided fixture this week. No adjustments have been made for any ‘Klopp sendoff’ effects. If you believe in such an effect then you can adjust even further.
Interested to see how the set pieces in Arsenal - Everton play out. Both are among the top teams in offensive and defensive set plays.
Additionally, no adjustments have been made for any “on the beach” effects for this specific gameweek. Maybe such effects could have crept in through on-field performances over the past few weeks, but I would generally encourage you to adjust the above numbers accordingly if you strongly believe in such effects.
Fantasy Section:
Predicted goals sorted by GW38:
Predicted assists sorted by GW38:
Predicted Goal Involvement sorted by GW38:
Fantasy Notes:
If you are looking to increase risk as much as possible, consider looking at Joao Pedro and Morgan Gibbs-White.
End of the season and we are finally seeing Nkunku in action - the numbers are expected to be good if he gets the minutes.
Darwin Nunez being overlooked a lot. If you get news that he starts then definitely worth looking at.
I keep being asked about Eze vs Olise. My numbers have always preferred Eze, but it’s very close. Olise just misses out on the above tables with 0.5 xGI. Go with your preference.
Don’t even consider captaining anyone but Haaland.
Thanks for reading this season! Euro content will come up next.