Notes on MD33

~7 games left.

Title Race

We are blessed with a phenomenal title race. With ~7 games to go things could not be closer. The image above shows my projected table (left) against the market's projected table (right). The markets currently have all 3 teams to finish on the same amount of points. My model edges slightly more towards Arsenal taking the title. Looking forward, it is exciting to see the three strongest teams likely end the season with less rotation than we’ve seen before.

I am working on new content exploring the title race (likely a podcast). Stay tuned!

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Matchweek 33

Here are the projections for Matchweek 33. Some notes on this:

• Arsenal vs Aston Villa is probably the fixture with the biggest possible ‘model’ tilt. Starting in preseason I have been significantly under on Aston Villa compared to other sources and still not really ‘caught up’ to everyone else. Conversely, I am hotter on Arsenal than other sources. This combines into a nice cocktail of disparity. 70% win likelihood for Arsenal? Probably the number above most will disagree with.

• Bouremouth vs Man United is an even split of 38%-38% for win likelihood. Oh, how the mighty have fallen and oh, how the weak have prospered. Impressive work on both sides.

• Man City vs Luton is a great game to illustrate the difficulty and nuances of making predictions. Significant player minutes questions on both sides mean adjusting for your own beliefs is important. All things considered, I still consider this to be one of the most one-sided fixtures this season… if Haaland starts then it is likely the highest projection a player has had all season:

Thank you for reading to the end!

Much love ✌️